The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia has partnered with Homefire, a new initiative to explore social, political, and psychological divisions among voters, and to find common ground in American politics for a new data analysis and poll project. Donald Trump and those who voted for Joe Biden in 2020.
Here are some of the highlights released today:
– The majority of Trump and Biden voters support a number of elements of the bilateral infrastructure and reconciliation bill that are being debated in Congress, but there are significant differences in their support levels. (See Table 1 below)
– The majority of Biden and Trump voters – often the vast majority – express some sort of distrust of the electorate, the elected officials and the media sources they associate with the other side. The majority of Trump voters do not see a real difference between Democrats and Socialists, while a majority of Biden voters agree that there is no real difference between Republicans and Fascists. (See Table 2 below)
– A significant number of Trump and Biden voters are willing to consider violating democratic tendencies and norms if necessary to achieve their priorities. Roughly 2 out of 10 Trump and Biden voters strongly agree that “it would be nice if a president could take the necessary action, not limited to Congress or the courts”, and roughly 4 out of 10 (41%) and half of Trump (52%) are professional Voters at least agree that it is time for the blue / red states to secede. (See Table 3 below)
The Center for Politics and Project Home Fire will release findings from this study in a series of articles over the next few weeks. Crystal Ball on Saturday And other publications, as well as public conferences exploring major, divisive topics in American life. Those topics include: immigration, political violence, epidemic responses, and other notable national issues.
From July 22 to August 4, 2021, the project worked with the housing fire ModernizationAn industry-leading top 20 marketing research database that collects online answers to more than 300 social, political and psychological topics from 1,1001 Donald Trump presidential voters and 1,011 Joe Biden voters (N = 2,012). +/- Error margin of 2.2 percentage points.
As part of this study, the Center for Politics and Project Home Fire will provide information not only on the divisions between Biden and Trump voters, but also on what types of voters in both camps are more open to finding a common ground and what kind of message they have. The best opportunity to reach a compromise.
The divide between Trump and Biden voters is deep, wide and dangerous. The scope is unprecedented and cannot be easily corrected, ”said Larry J. Saboto, director of the UVA Political Center.
We must not only understand that we must be divided in order to find ways in which these divisions can be avoided, but also understand the ways in which we can move forward to reach a consensus. This project will help us do both, ”said Larry Shack of Project Homes.
Trump and Biden voters are in crisis
In principle, Biden and Trump voters make some common ground. For example, considering some aspects of the infrastructure and reconciliation bills currently under discussion in Congress, less than 50% of Trump voters support only two: Prohibition and protection of the “right to work” law by unions (from Trump voters) 42% support, and free community college for all Americans (43% of Trump voters support). In other words, the majority of Biden and Trump voters support the other elements of the infrastructure and reconciliation bills currently being debated in Congress, but Biden voters are more supportive of these issues than Trump voters. Table 1 shows these findings.
Table 1: Biden / Trump’s Voter Support Politics / Project Home Fire Findings on various issues under discussion as part of bilateral infrastructure and reconciliation bill discussions
Note: For the statements in Table 1, respondents were asked how much they agreed or disagreed with the statement on a 0-100 point scale (0 rated completely disagree, 1-25 strongly disagreed, 26-50 slightly Disagreed, 51-75 slightly agreed, 76-99 strongly agreed and 100 fully agreed). For that statement, 51 or more people on the scale chose the percentage of people who at least agreed with the statement, and the percentage of people who at least strongly agreed, 76 or more.
In the study, the idea that “government should work for the people” emerges as a consensus corridor that can initiate a dialogue and find a common ground. The opportunity is for many Trump and Biden voters to take advantage of this agreement to achieve the positive change and course of action they want.
The fact that Biden and Trump voters do not see how working with the other side fits into the bigger picture or turns it to their advantage fits these positives. If anything, they see the compromise as contrary to their priorities. They are convinced that the other party is pursuing an agenda that goes against their interests, policies and values. Many Biden and Trump voters want much from the government, but on the other hand, they are convinced that they will be personally persecuted if they take any route.
Demonstrating the magnitude of the underlying divide, nearly 90% of voters on both sides agree that if there was a “way to the other side”, people like them would no longer belong to the United States, with more than 1 in 5 saying they “totally agree”.
Table 2 shows the majority of Biden and Trump’s voters – often the vast majority – expressing some sort of distrust of the electorate, the elected officials and the media sources with which they associate with the other side. It includes about three-quarters of Biden and Trump voters who supported extreme media censorship on the left (Trump voters) or right (Biden voters), as well as more than three-thirds of all elected officials on the other side. The party represents a clear and present danger to American democracy.
Table 2: Poll findings on fear and mistrust among Biden and Trump voters
Note: The same 0-100 scale described in the note under Table 1 is used here as well.
Many trump and biden voters believe that the floor is piled against them and that their commitment to democracy is weakening
On the other hand, widespread confusion and cognition of a system that favors the rich and powerful has undermined confidence in our representative democracy:
-On the one hand, about 80% of Trump and Biden voters consider democracy to be more appropriate than any non-democratic government.
– On the other hand, more than 6 in 10 Trump and Biden voters see America as a less representative democracy and a system that is active and corrupt for the benefit of the rich.
-Overall, more than two-thirds support- and one-third strong-minded leaders encourage and empower and take the law into their own hands when dealing with individuals or groups they think are dangerous.
Their willingness to consider violations of democratic tendencies and norms extends to a hypothetical and alarming and alarming finding: Roughly 2 out of 10 voters in Trump and Biden – or more than 31 million Americans – strongly agree that “it would be good if a president could “Take the necessary action, not limited to Congress or the courts” (as exemplified from the results of this survey). States recognize that it is time to secede and divide the country.
Table 3: Findings of the Politics / Projects Home Fire Survey on Biden and Trump Voters’ Commitment to Democracy
Note: The same 0-100 scale described in the note under Table 1 is used here as well.
How this project addresses this division
An understanding that can empower effective compromise requires an in-depth understanding of the political and socio-psychological motivations that animate every aspect of the political spectrum. To that end, the study of this Politics / Project Housing Center aims:
– To provide a deeper understanding of the dangerous divisions that threaten to pursue the democracy that America represents in the universe.
Reveal the politically and psychologically motivated “compromise acceptance” subgroups between Biden and Trump voters.
– Identify the Consensus Corridor (Biden & Trump Voter Policy and Problem Areas) and Consensus Clusters (Biden & Trump Voter Teams Groups that accept compromises that express concerns and disagreements about a particular policy or problem area).
Reveal definite ways to persuade Americans on both sides to open their minds to a mutually beneficial compromise, the greatest goal of which is to preserve, defend and expand America’s universal representative democracy.
“Our hope is that, using the tools of modern behavioral science, we can develop an in-depth understanding of project fears and concerns about animating the increasingly dangerous political and cultural divisions in America through home fires. We hope that the first step in effectively resolving a problem is to understand the causes and that the housing project can provide such an understanding, ”said Robert Mick McWilliams on the project home fire.
The logical conclusion is that adopting a series of strategies and strategies that reaffirm America’s reputation as the world’s leading representative democracy that encourages bridge building and positive dialogue will benefit the country in the long run. Simply put – we need a real plan to heal our broken democracy. In our research, we have found several ways to help this, ”said Larry Shack of Project Home Fire.
About the UVA Center for Politics
Professor Larry J. The Political Center, founded by Saboto, has set up annual conferences, publications, programs and curricula to promote democracy around the world and to equip people with a better understanding of politics and government. The Center has worked to educate and encourage our citizens about practical politics and civic engagement through unique, engaging and open-minded programs, including the production of four Emmy-winning documentaries.
About the housing fire project
Project Home Fire is the brainchild of professors. Robert “Mick” McVilliams and Larry Shack, co-founders with Predictive Brand Partners Jerry Howard (www.predictivebrandingpartners.com), The only brand strategy training that can predict consumer behavior. Mick and Larry, who are keen to find a solution to the volatile state of American democracy, are uniquely positioned to translate the proven predictive brandTM Approaching one of the most powerful problems of our time by bringing a fresh and non-partisan perspective based on cutting-edge forecast analysis and real-world understanding.